The Royal Navy has increased patrol operations to monitor Russian military activity as US intelligence officials warn that Moscow could attempt to test NATO’s response with attacks or other hostile actions against member states.

US officials reportedly believe Russia could carry out a limited land incursion or launch cyberattacks across Eastern Europe as early as this autumn, with concerns stretching through to 2029.

The warning comes after a Russian missile reportedly landed in Poland last week and an explosive drone was discovered at Leipzig Airport in Germany near a Ukrainian aircraft carrying weapons.

The UK Ministry of Defence said Royal Navy deployments to monitor Russian warships and submarines in British waters have increased by 25 per cent in the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Royal Navy crews also carried out patrols in coastal and North Atlantic waters for 21 days in July as part of efforts to track Russian activity.

Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, said the US assessment reflected concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt a “false flag” operation or other provocative action.

“We think Putin is pretty desperate and may do some kind of false flag provocation. He’s not capable of launching an invasion of NATO, but something nasty is possible,” Sikorski told the BBC.

Retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, director of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said analysts had been monitoring what he described as Russia’s move towards “new generation warfare”.

He said such tactics could include drone attacks, cyber operations, disruption campaigns, disinformation and other forms of hybrid warfare.

Montgomery warned that Russia could attempt to send a message to NATO over its continued support for Ukraine, particularly if fighting in Ukraine slows and European countries become less focused on security threats.

However, Sikorski said Russia’s actions had strengthened NATO’s unity, with European countries increasing defence spending in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

“We’re spending hundreds of billions on defence that we wouldn’t have done without Putin invading Ukraine,” he said.

The UK has also stepped up efforts against Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, with Royal Marines intercepting and boarding a sanctioned oil tanker, Smyrtos, in the English Channel in June.

The Ministry of Defence said disrupting the shadow fleet was aimed at reducing resources that support Russia’s military activities in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv had secured a deal with the United States for monthly deliveries of Patriot air-defence missiles.

The developments come as Russian strikes near Kyiv reportedly killed three people, including a child, with emergency crews responding to explosions in several locations around the Ukrainian capital.

Related video